Russia-Ukraine Conflict: A detailed Overview
Introduction
The morning you wake up is the morning, considerably worse than how it was yesterday. Everything seems to be under the effect of such a terrible conflict. That's an introduction to what the situation in Ukraine currently looks like.
Rest of the world, as always at loggerhead, is perplexed and confused about what needs to be done to bring this crisis termed as war to an end.
Below we talk about everything that hasn't been but needs to be said quite in detail.
Firstly why Russia actually attacked, the causes, its effects, and possible solutions for a way out. We'll walk you through baby steps until you can clearly see the light.
Where it all Begins
Previously a part of the USSR, Ukraine gained her independence back in 1991. It has been a part of Russia in different periods of its history, which has repeatedly been claimed by Putin just so it could justify the future invasion.
Fast forward to 2014 when Ukraine's then government suspended the association agreement with the EU compromising and to some extent undermining the very narrative they were voted up to the government by the majority in the country.
Reportedly an economic instability in the country as a hurdle on one hand and increasing pressure from Russia on another. Protests broke out countrywide toppling the already wavering government.
The Ukrainian revolution in 2014 set the ties between the two states on historic halt. Followed by Crimea's accession to Russia, relations also grew hostile because Russia backed the separatist groups in Ukraine's southeastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk which saw the killings of more or less around 14000 Ukrainians as reported.
Annexation of Crimea
A peninsula in the Black Sea and a part of Ukraine since 1954. Although Crimea had a special status of being an autonomous republic within Ukraine, it has had massive strategic importance for Russia since long enough.
Majority in this region is in fact pro-Russian and as per a survey carried out in 2014, 86% of Crimea's population endorsed its adjunction to Russia.
Since the government was overturned as a result of protests, pro-Russian protests also gained momentum across some of the regions in the country. Meanwhile Putin taking advantage invaded Crimea and annexed it.
Vladimir claimed post-invasion that he deployed his troops in Crimea territory to ensure its people the will to freely express themselves with all the conditions properly met. A violation of international law, the rest of the nations deem it as.
But are these reasons enough for a sovereign nation to attack another, that too in current times, or more precisely in a nuclear age? The answer is obviously A BIG NO.
Why is Russia attacking Ukraine?
Russia wants to control Ukraine? Russia wants to control Ukraine so Nato and the EU do not? A lot of things can be said honestly, It's not easy answering that question with the utmost certainty. Truth is there's a bigger game behind the curtains most of the time that normal eyes can't even see.
One thing for sure is the fact that no country would risk losing its influence across her own peripheries, more so to an entity they see as a threat. So the response was imminent, it was just a matter of "when".
NATO's Role in the Conflict
In its campaign to take European countries that had once been part of Russia under its own umbrella, NATO as a result also happened to march subsequently way closer to the Russian borders.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO's chief in 2008 also claimed to take Ukraine under its wing as one of its future perspectives, which never had to sit well with Russia.
Ukraine leaders likewise have always held this desire to join NATO one day. Russia considered it as a potential threat to its security as well as its interests in the region. It will do anything in hand to not let anything like this happen ever, Putin insisted.
In fact the Russian president blamed NATO for installing troops and providing weapons to Ukraine which NATO denied calling it merely an accusation. He had also asked the West back in December 2021, to ensure that no way Ukraine can join NATO which too NATO straight up refused to entertain.
NATO’s Involvement Plan
NATO seems to have no plans to get directly involved and is preferring to stay out and just watch out the conflict from a far as of now.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, former NATO chief stated in an interview done recent with Foreign Policy magazine that,
"The world is splitting into two camps, the autocracies led by China and democracies led by the US. There will be a period of confrontation, until the autocrats realize constructive cooperation is better than destructive confrontation."
To put it in perspective, while this world is still haunted by and bearing the consequences of the statements made by former chief Mr. AFR back in 2008, to come up with something as sensitive as this is blatantly provocative. That's more than evident that destructive confrontation is being pushed against an already offensive natured Vladimir.
It's going to do nothing but hurt the Ukrainians' cause against Russian atrocities.To be careful in our speeches is the least we can do to voice our support out for Ukraine.
Refugee Crisis and death toll in Ukraine
War is war, it has a history of bringing no good to a layman regardless of which side you are on. As per several reports, Russia has gained control over about 20% of Ukraine's territory up till now with the crisis still going on.
No exact numbers can be reported to conclude the death toll. Governments may report them through the lens of their interests in the matter and media theirs. Exact figures will start to surface once this conflict comes to an end.
War has forced the continent into a huge refugee crisis with around 7 million people(majority of whom are women and children) said to have fled the country and displaced almost 8 million within the country itself). Those who fled are being welcomed with wide arms and provided with effective humanitarian aid.
Impacts on the global economy
Inflation had already reached an all-time high due to the coronavirus outbreak that this war acted no less than fuel to the fire. There are price hikes everywhere and it is making it difficult for the people around the globe to make their ends meet. Crude oil, items of daily use are getting out of their reach.
It has made the life of third world countries a living hell. They barely had anything to cover their skeletons with and now with no food, gas , and light at their disposal, it'll push them further into valleys of despair where there is no coming back from.
Possible Solutions
The war seems to have reached a dead end and the casualties are increasing with each passing day.
"What can lead to a rapid and peaceful solution is a situation in which the two nations can go to their people and say, 'We won'," said Mr Matthew Richards from the Department of Social Sciences at the Tec de Monterrey Hidalgo Campus.
But that's an idealistic result and only possible when no side has an upper hand in negotiations.
Negotiations
Negotiations are the only way out and it's a good thing that both parties decided to sit on the table and find a solution. Credit goes to Turkey for making this all happen so we could move towards much needed peace.
Since Russia controls territory, in order to have equal opportunities as Russia, Ukraine must force the invading army for a retreat and regain its territory which is barely perceptible at the moment.
A lengthy war too would fall in Ukraine's favor only if it weakens the Russian economy and subsequently its defense. But it might on another hand force Russia to use nuclear weapons out of desperation so that too can't be a sensible solution.
To resolve the matter all in all, the first step would be to at least agree on a cease-fire even if it costs Ukraine, in the worst possible scenario, the no entrance to NATO. If that ensures people's safety then it's absolutely worth it.
Since it's humanity which actually wins if peace is achieved with no further escalations.
